Lower beef and pork production could offset higher broiler production and lead to lower total meat production in 2022. The latest forecast from the Livestock Marketing Information Center suggests that total red meat and poultry production will total 106.25 billion pounds, down slightly year-over-year. . If it materializes, it would be the first drop in total meat production after seven consecutive years of increased production since 2014. Total meat consumption per capita in 2022 is forecast at 222.4 pounds, up down year-on-year from 224.2 pounds last year. Pork, broiler chicken, and beef production accounts for 94% of total meat production in the United States. Most of the remaining 6% is turkey production, along with small totals of veal, other poultry, sheep and lamb.
Pork production is expected to fall to 27.19 billion pounds in 2022, down 1.8% year-over-year. The March hog and hog report showed market hog and breeding hog inventories down from a year ago. Pork consumption per capita is expected to be 50.3 pounds in 2022, up from 51.0 pounds last year. Pork exports are expected to decline in 2022 due to lower exports to China. This will offset some of the decline in production, thereby mitigating the decline in domestic pork consumption.
Broiler chicken production is expected to rise 2.3% in 2022 to a record 45.44 billion pounds. Per capita broiler consumption is forecast to be 97.8 pounds this year, up from 96.4 pounds in 2021. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a threat to all poultry markets, but has up now mainly affected laying hens and turkeys. However, broiler export bans are already restricting exports and could expand further. HPAI could lead to some reduction in broiler production, but export bans could lead to more chicken meat flowing into the domestic market, thus increasing domestic consumption even more.
Beef production in 2022 is expected to decline 2.2% to 27.39 billion pounds, down from a record high of 28.01 billion pounds last year. Beef consumption is expected to be 57.2 pounds in 2022, up from 58.8 pounds last year. Lower beef cattle inventories will lead to lower cattle slaughter this year and lower beef production throughout the year. Beef exports are expected to decline from record highs in 2021.
High feed prices will affect all livestock industries and could moderate meat production in the future. Food costs have increased significantly in 2021 and will increase further in the months to come. Beef will also be affected by drought conditions and reduced pasture and hay production. Drought can impact the timing of beef production, with drought clearance potentially increasing beef production temporarily, but causing a greater drop in beef supply later.
Retail prices are high for all meats. Retail prices reported in February were up 14 to nearly 16 percent year-over-year for beef, pork and broilers. Meat prices are not expected to continue to rise, but may stabilize and hold near current higher levels.
Source: Oklahoma State University , which is solely responsible for the information provided and is fully owned by the source. Informa Business Media and all of its affiliates are not responsible for any content contained in this information asset.